Josh McDaniels really should be kicking himself

What's most troubling about his fourth-quarter decision was that even afterward the Raiders coach didn't realize just how bad it was.

On the one hand, Josh McDaniels could have tried to gain 4 yards and extend a drive in which the Raiders could have tied the score in their game against Pittsburgh on Sunday night.

On the other, McDaniels could opt to attempt a field goal, count on his defense force a punt, trust a player to field that punt and then hope his offense can drive the more than 70 yards it would need to score a game-winning touchdown.

Now, I know which of those two options sounds like a more rational path to victory, but apparently, McDaniels saw it differently. He was so determined to kick a field goal while trailing by eight that he actually did it twice in the final 5 minutes.

The first one, with 3:15 left, was nullified by a penalty against Pittsburgh as DeMarvin Leal was flagged for a personal foul after using a Raiders lineman to push himself upward at the line of scrimmage. The penalty should have saved McDaniels from himself; it didn’t.

Three players later, Las Vegas faced a fourth-and-4 at the Pittsburgh 8 and here came the kicker again. Like I said, he really wanted to kick that field goal.

We’re only three weeks into the NFL season, but I’m not sure we’re going to see a more significant mistake by an NFL coach at such a crucial juncture in a game this season. Wait. Who am I kidding? This is the NFL where there are plenty of instances every season in which NFL teams undermine their own chances at mistakes that have more to do with risk management and game theory than the technical specifics of this particular sport.

Afterward, when McDaniels spoke to reporters, he didn’t seem to think he did anything wrong.

"You're going to need another possession anyway, you know what I mean?" he said.

Not really, Josh, but before I explain why, let’s set up the situation for this Crunch Time case study: