Pressure-cooker awaits top M's prospects
Julio Rodriguez's incredible Sunday is a cause for hope, but it shouldn't stop us from looking at why so many of the Mariners top prospects have sputtered in the big leagues.
Julio Rodriguez had a four-hit Sunday, highlighted by a home run that checked out with an exit velocity of 114 mph.
He put a little sauce on his home run, too. He never ran, beginning the trot immediately. He carried the bat for several steps, one on the handle and the other on the barrel before tossing it aside. He did a little spin at third base.
It was absolutely awesome, and given the fact that he’s batting .333 over his last 15 games, it’s actually possible that one of the Mariners can’t-miss prospects won’t in fact end up missing. At the very least it takes the sting out of Jarred Kelenic’s demotion to Triple A on Friday.
That move is what I’d pegged as the subject for this newsletter: The Mariners moving Kelenic to Triple A. It was an act of mercy, really, not just for his continuing struggles at the plate, but because of what awaited him in New York. The Mets were the franchise that had drafted Kelenic. He was the player the Mariners really wanted when they gave up Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz for a combination platter of prospects (Kelenic, Justin Dunn and Gerson Bautista) and dead weight (Jay Bruce). The Mets also got $20 million in the deal, the Mariners also got Anthony Swarzak.
The Mets paid Cano $48 million to go away earlier this season. He’s now with the Padres. Kelenic has been demoted for the second time in two seasons. The trade looks very different now, three and a half years after it was made. In fact, one noted New York honk proclaimed the Mets the victor:
I don’t want to argue about who “won” the trade so I’ll just say that Heyman’s conclusion is fundamentally flawed to the point of being laughable. I do, however, want to wonder why Kelenic so far seems to be following in the footsteps of other Mariner prospects who’ve been highly regarded, highly anticipated, only to underperform at the Major League level.
Now let’s get all the pre-emotive arguments out of the way: I recognize that there is an inherent uncertainty in projecting the big-league performance of any prospect. That a can’t-miss billing doesn’t actually mean the player can’t miss. I also understand that Kelenic is 22 years old. Just because he has struggled mightily at the plate in each of his first two big-league seasons does not mean he won’t become a productive major-league player or even an All-Star.
But here’s what I am wondering about: Why do can’t-miss prospects seem to miss with such consistency when they come up to the Mariners? Because this isn’t just about Kelenic. It’s about Dustin Ackley. It’s about Mike Zunino. Throw Justin Smoak, Jesus Montero and even Justus Sheffield in there, too, because while those guys developed in different organizations, they’re big-league careers never took off once they got to Seattle.
It’s more than a decade of developmental history that’s about more than one front office, going back to Jack Zduriencik’s regime. It’s not about college vs. high-school, either. Hell, it’s not even about some flaw in the Mariners’ minor-league system given that Smoak, Montero and Sheffield all came up with different organizations.
And maybe this is all testament to the unpredictability of prospects and the Mariners have been unlucky. Seattle hasn’t been as fortunate with this group of guys as Atlanta was with Ronald Acuna Jr. or Washington with Juan Soto. Hell, the Mariners haven’t been as fortunate this time around as they were with Ken Griffey Jr. and Alex Rodriguez and Felix Hernandez.
Except I think there’s something else at work here.