The NFL Draft and delayed gratification
John Schneider's got the right idea when it comes to his habit of trading down in the NFL Draft. Here's hoping he does it. Again.
In the 1970s, a psychologist at Stanford University began conducting an experiment in which he placed a marshmallow in front of a child, who was told that if he or she could refrain from eating that marshmallow for 15 minutes, they’d get an additional marshmallow.
The marshmallow test – as it has come to be known – is a landmark in the study of cognitive behavior, and researchers have spent decades looking at everything from whether the ability to delay gratification can be learned to how well this ability forecasts future success.
I’m bringing all this up now because the NFL draft starts tomorrow night, and I don’t want anyone to be bummed if the Seahawks trade the 16th overall pick away so that they can receive additional picks. That’s because the draft is the NFL equivalent of the marshmallow test, and while it’s not quite so simple as waiting 15 minutes to double your haul, studies have shown that trading back in the draft order – or better yet trading for picks in future drafts – will net you more value.